Afghanistan — Taliban Rule & ISIS-K Insurgency
Afghanistan · Since 2021
Iran thanks Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan for refusing US-Israeli access
Iran thanks Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan for refusing US-Israeli access Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the goal of the US and Israel in attacking Iran had bee Reporting via Middle East Eye. WOR continues to monitor the Afghanistan conflict for further developments and severity changes.
WOR is monitoring the Afghanistan conflict across all monitored international sources. Severity scoring updates every 5 minutes as new reporting arrives. For full background on this conflict, see the conflict profile below.
SOURCE: Middle East Eye ↗CONFLICT BACKGROUND
Following the Taliban's takeover in August 2021 after the US withdrawal, Afghanistan has been governed by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan — an internationally unrecognized regime. While Taliban-on-NATO violence ended, internal conflict has escalated sharply. ISIS-Khorasan Province (ISIS-K / ISKP) conducts near-weekly suicide bombings, mass-casualty attacks, and targeted assassinations. The Taliban has suppressed all political opposition, eliminating women's rights, and faces an economic catastrophe — 97% of the population below the poverty line. Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara armed resistance remains in nascent form. Afghanistan's opium trade — world's largest — has been nominally banned by the Taliban but continues in parts of the country.
ACTIVE PARTIES
- Taliban / Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan
- ISIS-Khorasan Province (ISKP / ISIS-K)
- National Resistance Front (Panjshir — limited)
- Afghan Freedom Front
COUNTRY IMPACT
| Country | Impact Type | Severity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | Military involvement | CRITICAL | TTP (Pakistani Taliban) using Afghan territory to attack Pakistan; 1.7M Afghan refugees; border closure tensions; cross-border strikes |
| Iran | Refugee influx | HIGH | 3.5M Afghan refugees in Iran (largest refugee population globally); economic strain; ISIS-K attacks on Iran-linked Shia sites |
| Tajikistan | Military involvement | HIGH | Taliban-Tajikistan border tensions; Tajik opposition to Taliban ethnic persecution; Russia using Tajikistan for Afghanistan monitoring |
| Uzbekistan | Diplomatic tension | MEDIUM | Taliban on Uzbek border; economic interest in Afghan trade corridor; IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan) risk |
| China | Diplomatic tension | MEDIUM | China engaging Taliban diplomatically; ETIM (Uyghur group) in Afghanistan; BRI connectivity through Afghanistan at risk |
| Russia | Military involvement | MEDIUM | Russia mediating Taliban-Central Asia tensions; CSTO monitoring ISIS-K threat to Central Asia |
| India | Diplomatic tension | MEDIUM | India excluded from Afghan reconstruction; Pakistan-Taliban axis threatening Indian security; 600M USD development investment lost |
| USA | Diplomatic tension | MEDIUM | Over-the-horizon counter-terrorism; ISIS-K threat to US homeland; $7B frozen Afghan assets; humanitarian aid conditionality debate |
RECENT DISPATCHES
KEY FIGURES
DATA SOURCES
- ↗ ACLED
- ↗ UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA)
- ↗ Crisis Group
- ↗ SIGAR