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MONITORINGEast Africa (Horn)

Ethiopia–Eritrea Tensions

Ethiopia · Since 2018

WOR SEVERITY INDEX
5.1
-0.1 this week
5.1
LATEST DEVELOPMENT

Eritrea severs diplomatic ties with Ethiopia in tit-for-tat move

Ethiopia says it will shut its embassy in Asmara, declares 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata. It comes a week after fighting erupted north of the capital between the army and a new alliance of armed groups. [Agenzia Fides] Adigrat -- "It is extremely urgent to facilitate humanitarian access, dialogue for peace and every form of dialogue. We are completely isolated, communications are blocked, and we have no contact with anyone.

WOR is monitoring the Ethiopia conflict across all monitored international sources. Severity scoring updates every 5 minutes as new reporting arrives. For full background on this conflict, see the conflict profile below.

SOURCE: Al Jazeera ↗

CONFLICT BACKGROUND

Residual internal conflict in Amhara and Oromia regions following the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement ending Tigray war. Tensions persist with Eritrea over border demarcation and Afar corridor access.

ACTIVE PARTIES

  • Ethiopian National Defense Force
  • Fano Amhara Militia
  • OLA-Shane (Oromo Liberation Army)
  • Eritrean Defense Forces

COUNTRY IMPACT

CountryImpact TypeSeverityDetails
SomaliaMilitary involvementMEDIUMIGAD destabilization, Al-Shabaab recruitment opportunity
DjiboutiTrade disruptionMEDIUMPort access tension, logistics hub risk
KenyaDiplomatic tensionLOWEast African Community stability concern
SudanRefugee influxLOWCompounding regional instability, refugee movement

RECENT DISPATCHES

KEY FIGURES

CASUALTIES
1,200+ in 2025 (Amhara/Oromo)
DISPLACED
1.1 million in Amhara and Oromia regions
START DATE
January 2018
LAST UPDATED
Oct 2, 2026

DATA SOURCES

  • ↗ ACLED
  • ↗ AU High-Level Panel
  • ↗ Crisis Group

Figures come from the sources above. Descriptions are synthesized from multi-outlet news monitoring — see how WOR works.

VIEW GLOBAL IMPACT →SEE ON MAP →