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MONITORINGEast Africa (Horn)

Ethiopia–Eritrea Tensions

Ethiopia · Since 2018

WOR SEVERITY INDEX
5.1
0.0 this week
5.1
LATEST DEVELOPMENT

Nigeria: Dangote's Ethiopia Expansion Hits $4bn, Eyes Continental Food Self-Sufficiency

President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, has reaffirmed the company's ambition to drive Africa toward food self-sufficiency as its investment in Ethiopia's fertiliser sector rises to over $4 billion. Reporting via AllAfrica. WOR continues to monitor the Ethiopia conflict for further developments and severity changes.

WOR is monitoring the Ethiopia conflict across all monitored international sources. Severity scoring updates every 5 minutes as new reporting arrives. For full background on this conflict, see the conflict profile below.

SOURCE: AllAfrica

CONFLICT BACKGROUND

Residual internal conflict in Amhara and Oromia regions following the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement ending Tigray war. Tensions persist with Eritrea over border demarcation and Afar corridor access.

ACTIVE PARTIES

  • Ethiopian National Defense Force
  • Fano Amhara Militia
  • OLA-Shane (Oromo Liberation Army)
  • Eritrean Defense Forces

COUNTRY IMPACT

CountryImpact TypeSeverityDetails
SomaliaMilitary involvementMEDIUMIGAD destabilization, Al-Shabaab recruitment opportunity
DjiboutiTrade disruptionMEDIUMPort access tension, logistics hub risk
KenyaDiplomatic tensionLOWEast African Community stability concern
SudanRefugee influxLOWCompounding regional instability, refugee movement

RECENT DISPATCHES

KEY FIGURES

CASUALTIES
1,200+ in 2025 (Amhara/Oromo)
DISPLACED
1.1 million in Amhara and Oromia regions
START DATE
January 2018
LAST UPDATED
May 18, 2026

DATA SOURCES

  • ACLED
  • AU High-Level Panel
  • Crisis Group
VIEW GLOBAL IMPACT →SEE ON MAP →