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CRITICALMiddle East

Gaza Conflict

Palestine / Israel · Since 2023

WOR SEVERITY INDEX
9.5
0.0 this week
9.5
LATEST DEVELOPMENT

Gaza patients face agonising delays for medical evacuation

An estimated 300 Palestinians referred for treatment abroad have died since the ceasefire began, according to Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry. Mass civilian movement of this scale places severe strain on reception capacity in neighbouring areas, with UNHCR and partner agencies typically activating emergency registration and shelter protocols within 24–48 hours of a displacement surge. Displacement figures are often initially under-reported; final UNHCR counts for events of this type have historically been 30–50% higher than early estimates as remote areas are assessed.

Displacement acceleration is flagged. Severity scoring updates every 5 minutes as new reporting arrives. For full background on this conflict, see the conflict profile below.

SOURCE: BBC News

CONFLICT BACKGROUND

Ongoing military campaign in Gaza following Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023. Characterized by high civilian casualty rates, infrastructure destruction, and severe humanitarian crisis.

ACTIVE PARTIES

  • Israel Defense Forces
  • Hamas
  • Palestinian Islamic Jihad

COUNTRY IMPACT

CountryImpact TypeSeverityDetails
EgyptMilitary involvementHIGHRafah crossing control, 2M+ civilians at border, diplomatic mediation role
JordanRefugee influxHIGHPalestinian refugee pressure, domestic political instability risk
LebanonMilitary involvementHIGHHezbollah escalation risk, economic collapse acceleration
IranMilitary involvementHIGHProxy force coordination, regional escalation catalyst
IsraelMilitary involvementCRITICALDirect party to conflict — economic, military, and diplomatic impact
USAMilitary involvementHIGH$14B+ military aid, UN veto use, diplomatic capital expenditure
Saudi ArabiaDiplomatic tensionHIGHAbraham Accords normalization collapse, regional credibility at stake
QatarDiplomatic tensionHIGHHamas political bureau host, mediation leverage, diplomatic exposure
TurkeyDiplomatic tensionMEDIUMRegional influence play, trade suspension with Israel
UKMilitary involvementMEDIUMArms export suspension debate, parliamentary pressure
GermanyMilitary involvementMEDIUMArms export halt, humanitarian aid provision
FranceDiplomatic tensionMEDIUMDiplomatic mediation attempts, domestic social tension
Yemen (Houthis)Trade disruptionMEDIUMRed Sea shipping attacks in solidarity, global shipping disruption

RECENT DISPATCHES

KEY FIGURES

CASUALTIES
45,000+ confirmed deaths
DISPLACED
1.9 million internally displaced
START DATE
October 2023
LAST UPDATED
Jul 3, 2026

DATA SOURCES

  • ACLED
  • UN OCHA
  • UNRWA
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