CRITICALMiddle East
Iran–Israel / Iran–US Confrontation
Iran · Since 2024
WOR SEVERITY INDEX
8.7
+0.8 this week
8.7
OVERVIEW
The Iran–Israel confrontation has entered a direct exchange phase following decades of proxy war. April 2024 saw Iran launch 300+ drones and missiles directly at Israel — the first ever direct Iranian strike on Israeli soil. Israel retaliated with precision strikes on Iranian air-defense radar near Isfahan. Simultaneously, Iran's regional proxy network (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Iraqi PMF, Syrian militias) continues coordinated pressure on Israel and US assets across the region. The Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of global oil supply and 30% of global LNG transits — is under a declared Iranian military threat. The US has surged two carrier strike groups (USS Gerald R. Ford, USS Dwight D. Eisenhower) into the region, with B-52 bombers conducting deterrence flights. Israel has conducted strikes on Iranian nuclear-linked facilities in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza. A formal state of war between Iran and Israel has not been declared, but direct kinetic exchanges have crossed the threshold of proxy conflict.
LATEST DEVELOPMENT
Iran announces partial closure of Strait of Hormuz inspection regime for vessels linked to Israel or US Navy. Brent crude surges 11% in 48 hours. Israel conducts pre-dawn airstrikes on IRGC command nodes near Deir ez-Zor, Syria. IAEA reports Iran has enriched uranium to 84% purity — one step from weapons-grade.
ACTIVE PARTIES
- Islamic Republic of Iran (IRGC, Quds Force)
- State of Israel (IDF)
- United States (CENTCOM)
- Hezbollah (Iran proxy — Lebanon)
- Hamas (Iran proxy — Gaza)
- Houthis / Ansar Allah (Iran proxy — Yemen)
- Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (Kataib Hezbollah)
- Syrian Government Forces (IRGC-aligned)
COUNTRY IMPACT
| Country | Impact Type | Severity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | Direct conflict | CRITICAL | Direct Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks; Iron Dome and David's Sling interceptions. Home-front mobilization, reserve call-ups, disrupted civilian life in northern Israel. |
| United States | Military involvement | CRITICAL | Two carrier strike groups deployed to Eastern Mediterranean and Arabian Gulf. B-52 deterrence flights. Three US troops killed in Jordan (Tower 22 drone strike, Jan 2024). $1.2B emergency military aid to Israel. |
| Iran | Direct conflict | CRITICAL | Israeli precision strikes on air-defense radar near Isfahan. IRGC command nodes struck in Syria. Severe economic pressure from sanctions; rial at historic low. Escalation risk to full-scale war. |
| Saudi Arabia | Energy security | HIGH | Strait of Hormuz handles ~17–18 mb/d of Saudi oil exports. Potential mine-laying or IRGC fast-boat operations threaten tanker transit. Saudi Aramco force majeure contingency plans activated. |
| UAE | Energy security | HIGH | Approx. 3 mb/d UAE oil exports transits Hormuz. Abu Dhabi ADNOC reviewing emergency Fujairah bypass pipeline capacity. Dubai financial markets on high alert. |
| Kuwait | Energy security | HIGH | Entire Kuwaiti oil export volume (~2 mb/d) transits Strait of Hormuz. No alternative export route. GDP directly exposed to any closure scenario. |
| Iraq | Trade disruption | HIGH | Iraq exports ~4 mb/d through Hormuz. Iraqi PMF (Iranian-backed) actively conducting attacks on US bases in Iraq; retaliatory US strikes on PMF positions. Government caught between US and Iranian pressure. |
| Qatar | Energy security | HIGH | Qatar is the world's largest LNG exporter — nearly all production transits Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption would cause European and Asian gas price shock. QatarEnergy has activated contingency protocols. |
| Bahrain | Military involvement | HIGH | Home of US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT/5th Fleet). High-value target for Iranian retaliation. Shia-majority population with Iranian influence vectors. |
| Oman | Diplomatic tension | MEDIUM | Historically serves as back-channel between US/Iran. Economic exposure to Hormuz closure. Oman LNG exports affected. Maintaining neutrality under significant pressure. |
| China | Energy security | HIGH | China imports ~1.8 mb/d from Iran (under sanctions waiver). Also major importer from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq — all Hormuz-dependent. Any disruption spikes Chinese industrial costs and threatens GDP growth. |
| India | Energy security | HIGH | India imports ~2 mb/d through Hormuz-adjacent routes. Iran was major supplier before sanctions reimposed 2019. Indian strategic petroleum reserve inadequate for sustained disruption. Rupee vulnerable to oil price shock. |
| Japan | Energy security | HIGH | Japan imports ~90% of its crude oil from Middle East, the vast majority through Strait of Hormuz. A 30-day closure would exhaust strategic reserves. Electricity costs, industrial output, and yen stability all at risk. |
| South Korea | Energy security | HIGH | ~70% of South Korean crude imports transit Hormuz. Major refining and petrochemical industry directly exposed. Emergency coordination with US Forces Korea on energy security protocols. |
| Taiwan | Energy security | HIGH | Taiwan is almost entirely dependent on imported energy; Middle East supplies ~40% of crude. Any Hormuz disruption compounds existing Taiwan Strait security concerns. |
| Singapore | Trade disruption | MEDIUM | Global refining and trading hub; oil price shock and tanker re-routing affects refinery margins and shipping volumes through Singapore Strait. |
| Pakistan | Energy security | MEDIUM | Pakistan-Iran border tensions; Iran supplies piped gas. Energy price shock from Hormuz disruption would worsen already-fragile Pakistani economy and IMF program. |
| Germany | Energy security | MEDIUM | Post-Russia LNG diversification has increased Middle East LNG dependency. Qatari LNG (Hormuz-dependent) is now a key German supply source. Industrial production costs vulnerable. |
| France | Diplomatic tension | MEDIUM | Active diplomatic engagement trying to de-escalate. Military assets in region (Charles de Gaulle CSG). French LNG imports from Qatar at risk. |
| United Kingdom | Military involvement | MEDIUM | Royal Navy assets operating alongside US in Red Sea and Arabian Gulf. BP, Shell significant Middle East upstream exposure. |
| Italy | Energy security | MEDIUM | High dependence on North African and Middle East energy imports. ENI has significant regional upstream assets. |
| Spain | Energy security | MEDIUM | Spain has 8 LNG regasification terminals and diversified supply — more resilient, but sustained price spike still hits consumers. |
| Turkey | Energy security | HIGH | Turkey is heavily dependent on Iranian gas (direct pipeline) and Middle East oil. Bosphorus/Dardanelles strait closure not possible but tanker insurance spikes impact Turkish oil costs. |
| Jordan | Military involvement | HIGH | US Tower 22 base in Jordan struck by Iranian-backed drone (Jan 2024, killing 3 US troops). Jordan hosting US air assets; IRGC proxy attacks ongoing. Jordan has peace treaty with Israel, complicating regional position. |
| Syria | Military involvement | CRITICAL | IRGC command and logistics network in Syria being actively targeted by Israeli airstrikes. US forces at Al-Tanf garrison under proxy attack. Syria is the central battlefield of the Iran proxy network. |
| Lebanon | Direct conflict | CRITICAL | Hezbollah (IRGC-backed) conducting near-daily cross-border rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel. ~100,000 Israeli civilians displaced from northern border communities. Lebanese Army unable to enforce UNSCR 1701. Risk of full-scale IDF ground invasion. |
| Iraq | Military involvement | HIGH | 160+ attacks on US and coalition forces in Iraq since October 2023 by IRGC-backed Iraqi PMF. US retaliatory strikes on PMF command nodes in Baghdad suburbs. Iraqi sovereignty under pressure. |
| Switzerland | Diplomatic tension | LOW | Serves as US-Iran diplomatic channel; Swiss Protecting Power mandate for US interests in Tehran. |
| Russia | Trade disruption | MEDIUM | Russia benefits from elevated oil prices but concerned about regional escalation affecting energy markets it depends on. Selling weapons to Iran (Shahed drones) while publicly calling for de-escalation. |
| Egypt | Trade disruption | HIGH | Suez Canal revenues collapsing (~50% traffic decline from Red Sea crisis). Egypt simultaneously facing 15 million Palestinian refugees risk if Gaza situation deteriorates. IMF bailout at risk. |
| Pakistan | Diplomatic tension | MEDIUM | Iran conducted cross-border strikes into Pakistan (Jan 2024) targeting Jaish al-Adl; Pakistan retaliated with own strikes. Bilateral tensions elevated; 900km shared border. |
| Azerbaijan | Diplomatic tension | MEDIUM | Iran-Azerbaijan tensions rising over Israeli use of Azerbaijani territory for intelligence operations. Iran has conducted military exercises on Azerbaijani border. |
RECENT DISPATCHES
KEY FIGURES
CASUALTIES
400+ military/proxy (2024–2026); 3 US service members killed in Jordan drone strike (Jan 2024)
DISPLACED
180,000 in border zones (Israel–Lebanon axis)
START DATE
April 2024
LAST UPDATED
Mar 25, 2026
DATA SOURCES
- ↗ ACLED
- ↗ ISW (Institute for the Study of War)
- ↗ IAEA
- ↗ UN Security Council
- ↗ Crisis Group