Mexico — Cartel War
Mexico · Since 2006
Trump refuses to renew US-Canada-Mexico trade pact he once championed
Trump and US officials opted to keep USMCA alive on short leash of annual reviews rather than longer term renewal Wednesday was the deadline built into the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) for the three countries to jointly decide its fate, which is set to expire in 2036. Three of the victims died from suffocation More than a million people gathered in Mexico City Four people died, three from suffocation, as thousands of fans crowded Mexico City streets during World Cup celebrations, the capital’s health secretariat said in the early hours of Wednesday.
WOR is monitoring the Mexico conflict across all monitored international sources. Severity scoring updates every 5 minutes as new reporting arrives. For full background on this conflict, see the conflict profile below.
SOURCE: The Guardian ↗CONFLICT BACKGROUND
Mexico's cartel conflict has crossed into armed-conflict-level intensity, with ACLED ranking it in its global top 10 deadliest conflicts. The Sinaloa Cartel fractured after the 2024 arrest of El Mayo Zambada, triggering a Chapitos vs. Mayo faction war that has killed thousands. The Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) is simultaneously expanding into 26 of Mexico's 32 states using IEDs, drone-dropped bombs, and military-grade weapons. In May 2025, CJNG destroyed an armored military vehicle with IEDs, killing 8 soldiers. The fentanyl supply chain running through Mexico into the United States kills over 70,000 Americans annually, driving US policy pressure, tariff threats, and calls for direct US military intervention.
ACTIVE PARTIES
- Sinaloa Cartel (Chapitos faction)
- Sinaloa Cartel (Mayo faction)
- Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG)
- Mexican Federal Armed Forces
- State and municipal police forces
COUNTRY IMPACT
| Country | Impact Type | Severity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | Trade disruption | CRITICAL | Fentanyl trafficking through Mexico kills 70,000+ Americans annually; political pressure driving tariffs on Mexican goods; calls for US military operations inside Mexico |
| Guatemala | Refugee influx | HIGH | Cartel violence driving northward migration through Guatemala; cartel extortion of migrants along Guatemala-Mexico corridor |
| Honduras | Refugee influx | HIGH | Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) connections to Mexican cartels; cartel violence a primary driver of Honduras migration flows |
| El Salvador | Diplomatic tension | MEDIUM | Bukele model of gang crackdown cited as alternative; El Salvador-Mexico diplomatic friction over cartel-gang links |
| Colombia | Trade disruption | HIGH | Colombia is primary cocaine supplier to Mexican cartels; CJNG and Sinaloa maintain Colombian trafficking partnerships |
| China | Trade disruption | HIGH | Chinese chemical companies supply fentanyl precursors to Mexican cartels — subject of US-China diplomatic pressure |
| Canada | Trade disruption | MEDIUM | Canadian fentanyl overdose deaths linked to Mexican cartel supply chains; US tariff threats disrupting Canadian-US-Mexico trade agreement (CUSMA) |
RECENT DISPATCHES
KEY FIGURES
DATA SOURCES
- ↗ ACLED
- ↗ InSight Crime
- ↗ UN OHCHR
- ↗ Crisis Group