Mozambique — Cabo Delgado Insurgency
Mozambique · Since 2017
Mozambique: Government Denies Reports of Fuel Shortage
Mozambique's the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy (MIREME) denies that the country is facing another fuel shortage despite long queues of vehicles at filling stations in Maputo and other cities. Reporting via AllAfrica. WOR continues to monitor the Mozambique conflict for further developments and severity changes.
WOR is monitoring the Mozambique conflict across all monitored international sources. Severity scoring updates every 5 minutes as new reporting arrives. For full background on this conflict, see the conflict profile below.
SOURCE: AllAfrica ↗CONFLICT BACKGROUND
Ansar al-Sunna (locally known as al-Shabaab — unrelated to the Somali group), an ISIS-affiliated insurgency, has destabilized Cabo Delgado province in northern Mozambique since 2017. The group controls significant rural territory and conducted a shocking assault on Mocímboa da Praia in 2020. The insurgency threatens a $20B+ LNG megaproject (TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil) that could transform Mozambique's economy. Rwanda deployed 4,000 troops in 2021 with notable success in Mocímboa, and SADC deployed a regional force (SAMIM) that has seen mixed results. TotalEnergies declared force majeure in 2021 and has not resumed construction.
ACTIVE PARTIES
- Ansar al-Sunna / ISIS-Mozambique (al-Shabaab)
- Mozambican Defense Forces (FADM)
- Rwandan Defence Forces
- SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM)
- Private contractors (previously Dyck Advisory Group)
COUNTRY IMPACT
| Country | Impact Type | Severity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tanzania | Military involvement | HIGH | Border region at risk; Tanzania provides intelligence and limited military cooperation; SAMIM contributor |
| Rwanda | Military involvement | HIGH | 4,000 Rwandan troops deployed; most effective counter-insurgency force in theatre; bilateral security agreement with Mozambique |
| South Africa | Military involvement | MEDIUM | SANDF contributing to SAMIM; mining and energy investments in Mozambique at risk |
| France | Economic spillover | HIGH | TotalEnergies has $20B Mozambique LNG investment on hold under force majeure — largest single French overseas investment at risk |
| USA | Economic spillover | MEDIUM | ExxonMobil Rovuma LNG project ($30B) in adjacent concession also delayed; AFRICOM monitoring ISIS designation |
| EU | Military involvement | MEDIUM | EU Training Mission Mozambique (EUTM MOZ) training Mozambican rapid reaction companies since 2021 |
RECENT DISPATCHES
KEY FIGURES
DATA SOURCES
- ↗ ACLED
- ↗ Crisis Group
- ↗ Armed Conflict Survey
Figures come from the sources above. Descriptions are synthesized from multi-outlet news monitoring — see how WOR works.