CRITICALEastern Europe
Russia–Ukraine War
Ukraine · Since 2022
WOR SEVERITY INDEX
8.8
-0.2 this week
8.8
OVERVIEW
Full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine launched February 24, 2022, following annexation of Crimea in 2014 and Donbas conflict since 2014. Largest conventional warfare in Europe since World War II.
LATEST DEVELOPMENT
Front lines stabilized along Zaporizhzhia axis. NATO allies committed additional air defense systems following drone strike on Kyiv infrastructure.
ACTIVE PARTIES
- Russian Armed Forces
- Ukrainian Armed Forces
- Wagner Group (remnants)
- International Legion
COUNTRY IMPACT
| Country | Impact Type | Severity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | Energy supply | HIGH | Energy dependency restructuring, €200B+ economic impact, defense spending surge |
| Poland | Refugee influx | HIGH | 1.5M+ Ukrainian refugees, NATO eastern flank deployment, border militarization |
| Moldova | Energy supply | HIGH | Energy supply vulnerability, refugee pressure, Russian destabilization risk |
| Finland | Military involvement | HIGH | NATO accession driven by conflict, Russian border militarization |
| Hungary | Diplomatic tension | MEDIUM | Energy import disputes with EU, pro-Russia political tension |
| Romania | Military involvement | MEDIUM | Black Sea security, military infrastructure hosting |
| Turkey | Diplomatic tension | MEDIUM | Grain corridor mediation role, Bosphorus Strait control leverage |
| China | Diplomatic tension | MEDIUM | Diplomatic isolation pressure, trade opportunity from Russian sanctions |
| USA | Military involvement | MEDIUM | $75B+ military aid commitment, domestic political debate |
| France | Military involvement | MEDIUM | Defense industry surge, EU leadership role |
| UK | Military involvement | MEDIUM | Military aid, intelligence sharing, economic sanctions enforcement |
| India | Economic spillover | LOW | Discounted Russian oil imports, diplomatic balancing act |
| Brazil | Trade disruption | LOW | Fertilizer import disruption — Russian/Belarusian supply |
| Japan | Energy supply | LOW | LNG supply diversification costs, solidarity sanctions |
| South Korea | Diplomatic tension | LOW | Weapons export controversy, economic exposure |
RECENT DISPATCHES
KEY FIGURES
CASUALTIES
500,000+ estimated killed or wounded (combined)
DISPLACED
6.5 million refugees abroad; 5.1 million internally displaced
START DATE
February 2022
LAST UPDATED
Mar 25, 2026
DATA SOURCES
- ↗ ACLED
- ↗ UN Monitoring Mission
- ↗ UNHCR