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CRITICALEastern Europe

Russia–Ukraine War

Ukraine · Since 2022

WOR SEVERITY INDEX
8.8
+0.4 this week
8.8
LATEST DEVELOPMENT

At least 27 dead as Russia launches massive drone and missile attack on Kyiv

More than 70 missiles fired at Ukraine capital as Russia faces fuel shortages after strikes against its oil refineries Russia used nearly 500 drones and more than 70 missiles in the hours-long attack on Kyiv and other parts of the country in the early hours of Thursday. The latest barrage deployed the largest number of weapons on the capital and hit locations over a wide area. Sarah Rainsford reports from the completely destroyed nine-storey block of flats in Ukraine's capital.

Direct violence indicators are elevated in this reporting cycle. Severity scoring updates every 5 minutes as new reporting arrives. For full background on this conflict, see the conflict profile below.

SOURCE: The Guardian

CONFLICT BACKGROUND

Full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine launched February 24, 2022, following annexation of Crimea in 2014 and Donbas conflict since 2014. Largest conventional warfare in Europe since World War II.

ACTIVE PARTIES

  • Russian Armed Forces
  • Ukrainian Armed Forces
  • Wagner Group (remnants)
  • International Legion

COUNTRY IMPACT

CountryImpact TypeSeverityDetails
GermanyEnergy supplyHIGHEnergy dependency restructuring, €200B+ economic impact, defense spending surge
PolandRefugee influxHIGH1.5M+ Ukrainian refugees, NATO eastern flank deployment, border militarization
MoldovaEnergy supplyHIGHEnergy supply vulnerability, refugee pressure, Russian destabilization risk
FinlandMilitary involvementHIGHNATO accession driven by conflict, Russian border militarization
HungaryDiplomatic tensionMEDIUMEnergy import disputes with EU, pro-Russia political tension
RomaniaMilitary involvementMEDIUMBlack Sea security, military infrastructure hosting
TurkeyDiplomatic tensionMEDIUMGrain corridor mediation role, Bosphorus Strait control leverage
ChinaDiplomatic tensionMEDIUMDiplomatic isolation pressure, trade opportunity from Russian sanctions
USAMilitary involvementMEDIUM$75B+ military aid commitment, domestic political debate
FranceMilitary involvementMEDIUMDefense industry surge, EU leadership role
UKMilitary involvementMEDIUMMilitary aid, intelligence sharing, economic sanctions enforcement
IndiaEconomic spilloverLOWDiscounted Russian oil imports, diplomatic balancing act
BrazilTrade disruptionLOWFertilizer import disruption — Russian/Belarusian supply
JapanEnergy supplyLOWLNG supply diversification costs, solidarity sanctions
South KoreaDiplomatic tensionLOWWeapons export controversy, economic exposure

RECENT DISPATCHES

KEY FIGURES

CASUALTIES
500,000+ estimated killed or wounded (combined)
DISPLACED
6.5 million refugees abroad; 5.1 million internally displaced
START DATE
February 2022
LAST UPDATED
Jul 3, 2026

DATA SOURCES

  • ACLED
  • UN Monitoring Mission
  • UNHCR
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