Sahel Insurgency
Mali / Burkina Faso / Niger · Since 2012
Mali’s forces target rebel alliance in junta’s fight to keep power
Army supported by Russian mercenaries launches airstrikes after offensive by coalition of Islamist extremists and Tuareg separatists Reporting via The Guardian. WOR continues to monitor the Sahel conflict for further developments and severity changes.
WOR is monitoring the Sahel conflict across all monitored international sources. Severity scoring updates every 5 minutes as new reporting arrives. For full background on this conflict, see the conflict profile below.
SOURCE: The Guardian ↗CONFLICT BACKGROUND
Jihadist insurgency across the Sahel G5 countries by JNIM (al-Qaeda affiliate) and ISGS (Islamic State). Military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have expelled French/Western forces, increasingly relying on Russian Wagner Group successors.
ACTIVE PARTIES
- JNIM (al-Qaeda affiliate)
- ISGS (Islamic State)
- Malian Armed Forces
- Burkina Faso Armed Forces
- Russian Africa Corps
COUNTRY IMPACT
| Country | Impact Type | Severity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | Military involvement | HIGH | Expelled from all three countries, 5,000 troops withdrawn, geopolitical humiliation |
| Niger | Military involvement | CRITICAL | Military junta, uranium export leverage, French base expulsion |
| Mali | Military involvement | CRITICAL | Wagner Group presence, gold trade, civilian massacre reports |
| Burkina Faso | Refugee influx | CRITICAL | 2M+ internally displaced, worst food security in Africa |
| Nigeria | Military involvement | HIGH | Spillover into northwest states, Boko Haram cross-pollination |
| Algeria | Refugee influx | HIGH | 1,500km border with Mali/Niger, refugee pressure, smuggling routes |
| Russia (Wagner) | Military involvement | HIGH | Military, mining, and political influence expansion |
| Senegal | Diplomatic tension | MEDIUM | Migration corridor pressure, ECOWAS mediation |
| Côte d'Ivoire | Trade disruption | MEDIUM | Northern border infiltration, cocoa supply chain risk |
| USA | Military involvement | MEDIUM | Base access lost in Niger, counterterrorism setback |
| EU | Refugee influx | MEDIUM | Migration corridor pressure, Frontex strain, development aid suspension |
| China | Economic spillover | LOW | Mining investment protection concern, diplomatic neutrality play |
RECENT DISPATCHES
KEY FIGURES
DATA SOURCES
- ↗ ACLED
- ↗ UN Multidimensional Mission
- ↗ Armed Conflict Survey