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ACTIVEWest Africa

Sahel Insurgency

Mali / Burkina Faso / Niger · Since 2012

WOR SEVERITY INDEX
7.1
0.0 this week
7.1
LATEST DEVELOPMENT

West Africa: Lithium in the Sahel - How Armed Groups Are Exploiting the Global Scramble for the Critical Mineral

Analysis - Every electric vehicle, smartphone and laptop battery begins with one essential ingredient: lithium. [RFI] Mali's junta leader General Assimi Goïta has pardoned a French intelligence agent serving a 20-year prison sentence, a rare conciliatory move after years of strained relations between the west African nation and its former colonial ruler. Reporting via AllAfrica. WOR continues to monitor the Sahel conflict for further developments and severity changes.

WOR is monitoring the Sahel conflict across all monitored international sources. Severity scoring updates every 5 minutes as new reporting arrives. For full background on this conflict, see the conflict profile below.

SOURCE: AllAfrica

CONFLICT BACKGROUND

Jihadist insurgency across the Sahel G5 countries by JNIM (al-Qaeda affiliate) and ISGS (Islamic State). Military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have expelled French/Western forces, increasingly relying on Russian Wagner Group successors.

ACTIVE PARTIES

  • JNIM (al-Qaeda affiliate)
  • ISGS (Islamic State)
  • Malian Armed Forces
  • Burkina Faso Armed Forces
  • Russian Africa Corps

COUNTRY IMPACT

CountryImpact TypeSeverityDetails
FranceMilitary involvementHIGHExpelled from all three countries, 5,000 troops withdrawn, geopolitical humiliation
NigerMilitary involvementCRITICALMilitary junta, uranium export leverage, French base expulsion
MaliMilitary involvementCRITICALWagner Group presence, gold trade, civilian massacre reports
Burkina FasoRefugee influxCRITICAL2M+ internally displaced, worst food security in Africa
NigeriaMilitary involvementHIGHSpillover into northwest states, Boko Haram cross-pollination
AlgeriaRefugee influxHIGH1,500km border with Mali/Niger, refugee pressure, smuggling routes
Russia (Wagner)Military involvementHIGHMilitary, mining, and political influence expansion
SenegalDiplomatic tensionMEDIUMMigration corridor pressure, ECOWAS mediation
Côte d'IvoireTrade disruptionMEDIUMNorthern border infiltration, cocoa supply chain risk
USAMilitary involvementMEDIUMBase access lost in Niger, counterterrorism setback
EURefugee influxMEDIUMMigration corridor pressure, Frontex strain, development aid suspension
ChinaEconomic spilloverLOWMining investment protection concern, diplomatic neutrality play

RECENT DISPATCHES

KEY FIGURES

CASUALTIES
12,000+ killed in 2025
DISPLACED
3.2 million displaced across region
START DATE
January 2012
LAST UPDATED
Aug 16, 2026

DATA SOURCES

  • ACLED
  • UN Multidimensional Mission
  • Armed Conflict Survey

Figures come from the sources above. Descriptions are synthesized from multi-outlet news monitoring — see how WOR works.

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