Syria — Post-Assad Instability
Syria · Since 2011
Bomb blast at Damascus cafe kills six, Syrian state media say
There was no immediate claim for the bombing at a cafe close to the Palace of Justice, a major government building. Reporting via BBC News. WOR continues to monitor the Syria conflict for further developments and severity changes.
WOR is monitoring the Syria conflict across all monitored international sources. Severity scoring updates every 5 minutes as new reporting arrives. For full background on this conflict, see the conflict profile below.
SOURCE: BBC News ↗CONFLICT BACKGROUND
Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 to a rebel coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Syria has entered a volatile transitional period. HTS controls Damascus and the northwest, but faces armed resistance from Assad loyalists, ISIS cells, and competing armed factions in the south and east. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/Kurdish YPG) control northeastern Syria and are under pressure from Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) forces. ISIS has exploited the power vacuum to resurge in Deir ez-Zor and the Syrian desert. Israel has conducted 500+ airstrikes on Syrian military infrastructure since Assad's fall to prevent weapons transfers to Hezbollah and Iranian forces.
ACTIVE PARTIES
- Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) / Syrian Transitional Government
- Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/YPG)
- Turkish Armed Forces / Syrian National Army
- ISIS / Islamic State
- Assad loyalist remnants
- Israel Defense Forces (airstrikes)
- Iranian IRGC (withdrawing)
COUNTRY IMPACT
| Country | Impact Type | Severity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | Military involvement | HIGH | Turkish forces and proxies active in northern Syria; prioritizing elimination of Kurdish YPG/SDF forces; hosting 3.5M Syrian refugees |
| Israel | Military involvement | HIGH | Conducting extensive airstrikes to prevent Iranian re-entrenchment and weapons caches falling to hostile actors; occupying buffer zone in Golan |
| Iran | Military involvement | HIGH | Loss of Assad ally is major strategic setback; IRGC withdrawing but maintaining residual presence; weapons pipeline to Hezbollah disrupted |
| Iraq | Military involvement | MEDIUM | ISIS cross-border movement from Syria; Iraqi PMF conducting operations near Syrian border |
| Jordan | Trade disruption | MEDIUM | Syrian border crossing reopening creates trade opportunity but also smuggling and ISIS infiltration risk |
| Lebanon | Refugee influx | MEDIUM | Some Syrian refugees returning from Lebanon; Hezbollah supply routes through Syria severed |
| Russia | Military involvement | HIGH | Russia retains Hmeimim airbase and Tartus naval base under negotiation; significant strategic loss of key Middle East ally |
| USA | Military involvement | MEDIUM | 900 US troops remaining in eastern Syria supporting SDF counter-ISIS operations; under pressure from Trump administration to withdraw |
RECENT DISPATCHES
KEY FIGURES
DATA SOURCES
- ↗ ACLED
- ↗ ISW
- ↗ Syria Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR)
- ↗ Crisis Group